Why Do Lefty Batters Hit into Fewer Double Plays?
Over the last 9+ seasons, MLB pitchers have been able to induce about 1.5 double plays per game—0.75 for each team. Double plays enable pitchers to both get out of major jams and keep their pitch counts manageable.
In this analysis, I’ll examine the difference in the propensity to ground into double plays for righty batters and lefty batters and determine what this could mean for in-game strategy.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Seth Wenig
The Pitchers with the Best xwFIP: April Edition
This past offseason, I introduced the pitching metric xwFIP in a series of three posts. xwFIP is an advanced fielding independent pitching metric that not only takes into account walks, hit batsmen, strikeouts, and homeruns, but also the xwOBA on batted balls. The metric takes into account nearly 100% of plate appearances in its calculation. Moreoever, I have showcased that it has greater predictive power than each of ERA, wOBA, FIP, xFIP, xwOBA, and SIERA in predicting future run prevention performance of a pitcher.
This season, I’ll be posting the xwFIP leaderboard each month so we can see the starters and relievers that are most likely to have continued success, along with the pitchers who have been lucky and unlucky so far.
Photo Credit: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
Why Should You Advance Up the Court in Tennis?
Whether you’re a baseline specialist who can endure grueling rallies and outlast your opponent like Djokovic, Nadal, and Medvedev - or a player that prefers to approach the net to finish off points like McEnroe, Edberg, or Federer, your court positioning relative to the baseline and relative to the net is vital. Why is that? Let’s take a look.
Photo Credit: Frank Franklin II/Associated Press
Is the Dodgers' Starting Lineup Optimal?
After winning the offseason by signing two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, Japenese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and slugger Teoscar Hernandez, while trading for ace Tyler Glasnow, the Dodgers are off to a fast start in 2024 with a 10-5 record, averaging a bludgeoning 5.4 runs per game (PECOTA projects them to average 5.38 this season). It doesn’t look like the team needs any help.
However, is their lineup construction optimal? In this analysis, I will assess if there is room for improvement.
Photo via Baseball Prospectus
Should You Intentionally Foul With a 1-Point Lead to Secure the Final Possession?
Team A is leading Team B by one point. Team B has the ball with 10 seconds to go. If Team B’s two-point field goal percentage is higher than 50%, which is the case for 29 of the 30 teams in the NBA this season, they could be the favorite to win the game, despite trailing by one point. In which situations can an intentional foul by Team A swing the win probability back in their favor?
Photo Credit: NBA.com
How to Quantify Lineup Protection in Baseball
MLB lineup construction is a science that has been developing for over a century. The nuances of ordering hitters include alternating right-handed and left-handed batters to make it more difficult for opposing teams to exploit the platoon advantage, batting your least productive hitter 8th instead of 9th so that the number 9 hitter can act as a second leadoff hitter, and sometimes avoiding batting your best hitter 3rd since that spot is the most likely spot to come up with 2 outs and the bases empty.
In this analysis I’ll discuss lineup protection, that is, the impact that the hitter behind you has on the pitches you face. I’ll use the results of my lineup protection analysis to add another wrinkle to the lineup construction equation.
Photo Credit: Julio Aguilar/Getty Images
Who Will Win the EPL Title - Liverpool, Arsenal, or City?
The EPL title race saw a major shift this past weekend when Liverpool came back from 0-1 down to defeat Brighton 2-1, and Arsenal went into the Etihad and held Manchester City to a scoreless draw.
In this analysis, I’ll use the last two seasons of EPL matches to rank the three contenders, considering the strength of opponent, final score, and each team’s expected goals scored (xG) based on the shots that they took/allowed in each match. I will then predict the match outcomes of the final nine weeks of the season and determine how likely each team is to capture the Premier League title.
Photo Credit: Getty Images
Which Kickers Are Best Prepared for the NFL’s New Kickoff Rules?
The NFL has approved a new set of kickoff rules for the 2024-25 season, with the goals of increasing the number of kick returns from the all-time low mark of 22% last season and reducing the velocity of player collisions on kickoffs. The XFL sported a 97% kick-return-rate last season under this kickoff format, so one of the game’s most exciting plays is likely to return to the forefront.
In this analysis I’ll discuss how the new kickoff rules will change kicking strategy, and determine which kickers are the best prepared to adjust to the new rules.
Photo Credit: The Miami Herald
A Relative Value Comparison of Goal Scorers and Goalies in Hockey
Conventional hockey wisdom puts the goalie as the most important player on the ice, akin to the quarterback in football or the point guard in basketball. In my first hockey analysis for The Paraball Notes, I’ll evaluate the NHL’s goalies and goal scorers to determine at which points in the player value distribution this conventional wisdom holds true. My ultimate objective is to find the relative value of goal scorers versus goalies.
Photo Credit: Bob DeChiara/USA TODAY Sports
Paraball’s March Madness Bracket
The brackets are in and one of the most exciting weeks of sports is about to begin! This year’s March Madness tournament features top seeded UConn, looking to defend its title and become the eighth program to repeat as national champions—the first to do so since Florida in 2007. The bracket also features some potential Cinderella teams that have had tremendous seasons in weaker conferences. Who will come out on top?
Photo Credit: Abbie Parr/Associated Press
Who Are the Best Defensive Outfielders in the MLB?
When evaluating an outfielder’s ability to track and catch fly balls, two of the factors we look at most closely are the outfielder’s jump and the outfielder’s speed. Statcast breaks an outfielder’s jump down into three components: reaction for the first 1.5 seconds, burst for the next 1.5 seconds, and route efficiency for the first 3 seconds.
In this analysis I’ll determine which factors are the most important for an outfielder’s success, and use those factors to project the top defensive outfielders in 2024.
Photo Credit: Miles Kennedy/Phillies
Which Pitching Staff Has the Most Diverse Set of Release Points?
A pitching staff featuring a varied range of release points provides an additional way to unsettle an opposing lineup. In this analysis, I will measure the release point diversity of both right-handed and left-handed pitchers on each team from 2023, to pinpoint the teams that lead the way in this strategy and those that trail behind.
Photo Credit: Jeff Chiu/Associated Press
When is it Best to Bunt?
There have been many analyses over the years about the best situations to bunt. Tom Tango’s The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball has a thorough analysis of when a team should sacrifice bunt, considering factors such as the on-base percentage of the on-deck hitter and the speed of the batter, as well as the score, game state, and run scoring environment.
In this post, I will take a look at the last two years of bunt attempts (4733 attempts, just under one bunt attempt per game) to assess which situations bunts have been most successful in improving an offense’s run scoring and improving an offense’s win probability. I’ll also assess the pitch characteristics of the pitches that bunts have been most and least successful against.
Photo Credit: Hannah Foslien/Getty Images
NFL Combine 2024: How this Year’s Results Compare to the Results of the Last Three Years
The 2024 NFL Combine wrapped up this past weekend, showcasing some of the best athletes in the world eager to improve their NFL Draft prospects for the upcoming April event.
In this post, I will assess the standout performers at each position from the 2024 Combine, comparing them to athletes from the past three combines to identify those who truly stand out.
Photo Credit: Stacy Revere/Getty Images
Opinion: NBA Should Stop Counting Full Court Shots against a Player’s Field Goal Percentage
For my first Paraball Notes opinion, I argue why the NBA should stop counting full court shots against players' field goal percentages, analogous to how the MLB does not count sacrifice bunts or sacrifice flies against batters' batting averages.
Photo Credit: Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images
MLB’s Best Defenses, Most Athletic Defenses, and Most Intelligent Defenses
Modern defensive metrics vary significantly in their approach to evaluating fielders. In essence, Fangraphs’ dWAR, which I’ll refer to as fdWAR, is a measure of athleticism, whereas Baseball Reference’s dWAR (let’s call this bdWAR) is a measure of game impact, including a team’s positioning.
In this post I’ll take a look at how the 30 MLB teams ranked in each of bdWAR (overall defensive performance), fdWAR (athleticism), and the difference between bdWAR and fdWAR (positioning value) for the 2023 season.
Photo Credit: Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images
Measuring Aaron Judge’s True Offensive Value
What are some of the hidden ways in which a superstar hitter helps his team?
Photo Credit: AP Photo/LM Otero
How Can Hovland Improve His Game?
Norwegian golfer Viktor Hovland had his breakout season last year, clinching victories at the Memorial Tournament, the BMW Championship, and the Tour Championship, while also playing a pivotal role in the European team's triumph at the Ryder Cup.
Where should he improve his game to make a run at the prestigious title of the PGA Tour’s top golfer?
Photo Credit: Matt York/AP/NTB
Do Baseball Players Perform Better in Their Walk Years?
I recently came across an article featured on The Society for American Baseball Research (SABR), originally posted in the 2006 Baseball Research Journal, about performance in a player’s walk year, which refers to the final year of a player's contract before they become eligible for free agency. As stated by the article, “conventional wisdom would say they do perform better in the year before they become free agents, at least according to the stereotype of the greedy player, who will put out extra effort only when he will be rewarded financially. Traditional economic theory agrees. Like all rational economic actors, baseball players should produce more of a product when the going price rises.”
The author, however, found that baseball players do not give extra effort that results in an outperformance of their career numbers in their walk years.
Does the same conclusion hold true today?
Photo Credit: Nick Wass/AP Photo
The Super Bowl Overtime Cointoss: Should the 49ers Have Deferred?
Super Bowl LVIII certainly did not disappoint. The big game set the record for average Super Bowl viewership at 123.7m and included a thrilling overtime period. After winning the coin toss in overtime, the 49ers elected to take the ball. They kicked a field goal and watched Mahomes do his thing - another game winning touchdown drive. What was the right decision for the 49ers - electing to kick or receive?
Photo Credit: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images