MLB’s Early Season Breakout Pitchers

Photo Credit: Denis Poroy/Imagn Images

One of my favorite analyses of the season is the first xwFIP leaderboard. xwFIP’s ability to reach statistical significance relatively earlier in the season, due to the metric’s incorporation of all batted balls, quickly leads to some interesting insights.

Table 1 shows the leaderboard through the end of April.

Table 1: xwFIP leaders among all pitchers with 10+ innings pitched through April 30th

No surprise here - Mason Miller is dominating the league with a 0.30 xwFIP, well over a point ahead of the second best pitcher so far. Somehow, he is getting even better.

Despite a 4.50 ERA, Nick Pivetta ranks second with a 1.48 xwFIP. Expect his ERA to come down as the season progresses.

Toronto’s Louis Varland is 3rd with a 1.60 xwFIP. In 4th is Toronto’s Jeff Hoffman with a 1.72 xwFIP. Hoffman has been extremely unlucky to start the season, as his ERA has ballooned to 6.39. Rounding out the top 5 is Arizona’s Juan Morillo, with a 2.00 xwFIP. 

Next let’s take a look at the top starters in baseball.

Table 2: xwFIP leaders among starters with at least 3 games started through April 30th

After Pivetta, Paul Skenes (2.37), Drew Rasmussen (2.71), Tyler Glasnow (2.94) and Noah McLean (2.94) round out the top five starters by xwFIP. 

Shohei Ohtani comes in at 6th with a 3.01 xwFIP. His 0.60 ERA does not properly reflect his performance so far this season. Matthew Boyd and Jesus Luzardo have had very unlucky starts to their 2026 season, judging by their ERAs.

Angles breakout star Jose Soriano has a stellar 0.84 ERA. Soriano’s xwFIP is 3.67, so he is also due for some regression to the mean.