Which Kickers Are Best Prepared for the NFL’s New Kickoff Rules?
The NFL has approved a new set of kickoff rules for the 2024-25 season, with the goals of increasing the number of kick returns from the all-time low mark of 22% last season and reducing the velocity of player collisions on kickoffs. The XFL sported a 97% kick-return-rate last season under this kickoff format, so one of the game’s most exciting plays is likely to return to the forefront.
In this analysis I’ll discuss how the new kickoff rules will change kicking strategy, and determine which kickers are the best prepared to adjust to the new rules.
Photo Credit: The Miami Herald
NFL Combine 2024: How this Year’s Results Compare to the Results of the Last Three Years
The 2024 NFL Combine wrapped up this past weekend, showcasing some of the best athletes in the world eager to improve their NFL Draft prospects for the upcoming April event.
In this post, I will assess the standout performers at each position from the 2024 Combine, comparing them to athletes from the past three combines to identify those who truly stand out.
Photo Credit: Stacy Revere/Getty Images
The Super Bowl Overtime Cointoss: Should the 49ers Have Deferred?
Super Bowl LVIII certainly did not disappoint. The big game set the record for average Super Bowl viewership at 123.7m and included a thrilling overtime period. After winning the coin toss in overtime, the 49ers elected to take the ball. They kicked a field goal and watched Mahomes do his thing - another game winning touchdown drive. What was the right decision for the 49ers - electing to kick or receive?
Photo Credit: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
Super Bowl Preview: The Chiefs’ Path to Putting Up Points
Super Bowl LVIII is nine days away, featuring the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs and the NFC number one seed San Francisco 49ers. The Chiefs enter the game coming off a dominant Wild Card Round win over Miami, a close call in the Divisional Round against Buffalo, and a convincing performance in the AFC Championship Game against top seeded Baltimore. The 49ers roll into the big game after narrowly escaping the Packers in the Divisional Round and then just edging out the Lions in the NFC Championship Game.
In this analysis I’ll take a closer look at the recent performances of the Chiefs and 49ers to see which combinations of play type and location should be preferred and targeted by Patrick Mahomes and company.
Photo Credit: Abbie Parr/AP/Shutterstock
Quantifying Momentum in the NFL
Sunday’s NFC championship game between the Detroit Lions and the San Francisco 49ers was a roller coaster ride. The Lions seized a 17 point lead by halftime, only to see the 49ers storm back and win the game 34-31. In the second half, the Lions turned the ball over on downs twice after going for 4th and 2 at the SF 28 yard line and 4th and 3 at the SF 30 yard line. Each of those failed plays appeared to energize the Santa Clara crowd and help propel the home team to the Super Bowl.
Watching the game had me thinking: can we quantify momentum in the NFL?
Photo Credit: Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports
How Many Wins Was the “Tush Push” Worth in 2023?
At the start of the season, I discussed how the “tush push” had enabled the Eagles to go for 4th and short situations 2.4x as frequently as the average NFL team. In this post, I’ll analyze how each team performed in short yardage situations and approximate how many wins the tush push was worth to the Eagles in 2023.
Photo Credit: Eric Hartline/USA TODAY Sports
When Will We See a 70-yard Field Goal in the NFL?
Over the last 24 years, NFL kickers have notably enhanced their strength and accuracy. Justin Tucker's 66-yard field goal in 2021 established a new NFL record. But when will we see a 70-yard field goal?
Photo Credit: USA Today
What is The Optimal Punt Location?
In “honor” of the Giants and Jets achieving a 20-year record with 24 punts in an NFL game in Week 8, I’ve analyzed the relationship between punt location and the opponent’s starting field position to determine whether there is an optimal location to punt from.
Photo Credit: newyorkjets.com
Is There A New Best Team in The NFL?
With schedule imbalances early in the season, it can be difficult to determine the best team in the league purely by record.
538’s ELO system used to be a reliable source for NFL team comparisons, controlling for the difficulty of opponent. However, since 538 has stopped publishing sports rankings and predictions, I thought it would be a good time to run a two-year rolling ELO to rank all the NFL teams with 1000 as the starting point. Here’s how it turned out.
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How to Stop The Eagles Offense
The Philadelphia Eagles have been nothing short of remarkable in their last 25 games, boasting an impressive 21-4 record from the start of the last season, including three playoff encounters. The consistent Eagles’ offense averaged 28.1 points per game in the regular season last year and is averaging 28.2 points per game through five games in 2023.
So how can opposing defenses slow down the Eagles’ offense? In this analysis, I will break down the run/pass tendencies of the Eagles' offense, identify their situational strengths and weaknesses, and formulate a strategic approach to stifle their juggernaut attack.
Photo Credit: philadelphiaeagles.com
Running Wild: Have We Reached an Inflection Point in the NFL Offensive Strategy Equilibrium?
The NFL is a passing league. Quarterbacks and Wide Receivers have more protection than ever, Running Backs are having lengthy holdouts stemming from under-payment, and everybody loves to watch high scoring shootouts.
But why did the league’s run percentage just have the largest year-to-year increase since 2017, and the second largest year-to-year increase since 2003? Last year’s increase has catapulted the league’s run percentage to the highest level since 2010, leading me to wonder: Have we reached an inflection point in the NFL offensive strategy equilibrium?
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Charlie Riedel