Dollar Per WAR 2025/2026: How Much Are MLB Teams Willing to Pay This Offseason?
Photo Credit: Brad Penner/Imagn Images
With all the 2+ projected WAR free agents having signed new contracts except Framber Valdez (3.7), Eugenio Suarez (2.6), Zac Gallen (2.4), and Chris Bassitt (2.1), it’s time to look at this off-season’s Dollar/WAR breakdown. How much are MLB willing to pay this offseason?
Figure 1: AAV ($M) per fangraphs projected WAR among 2026 MLB free agents with at least 2.0 projected WAR
Kyle Tucker (Dodgers) was by far the most overpaid player in this group, at $12.71M/WAR. Cody Bellinger (Yankees) and Pete Alonso (Orioles) also represent significant overpays at $10.48 and $10.33, respectively. Kazuma Okamoto (Blue Jays, $5.56), Cody Ponce (Blue Jays, $4.55), and Foster Griffin (Nationals, $2.75) are the best bargains of the offseason, with Okamoto and Griffin coming to the MLB from Japan and Ponce from Korea. There is certainly good value in signing free agents from the NPB and KBO.
Figure 2: Dollar per WAR for all 2026 free agents projected 1+ WAR
If we expand our view to include all players projected 1+ WAR, you can see that the high leverage relievers Robert Suarez, Ryan Helsley, Devin Williams, and Pete Fairbanks are ahead of Tucker and his Dodger teammate Edwin Diaz is on par with him. Once again, this highlights how MLB team’s cost function is more of a blend of $/WAR and $/WPA, with the high leverage relievers accruing WPA at the fastest rate.
How does this year look relative to the past few offseasons?
Figure 3: Trend in Dollar/WAR from 2018 to 2026
This season’s $8.1M per WAR is relatively in-line with the slightly downward sloping trend that we’ve seen since the blockbuster free agencies before the pandemic. It is, however, the highest we’ve seen since 2022 despite the threat of a shortened or lost season in 2027 with the upcoming collective bargaining talks.
