The Best Pitchers to Target at the MLB Trade Deadline
We are about one month away from the MLB trade deadline - who are the best pitchers that may be made available this season?
To start off, let’s take a look at the overall xwFIP Top 30 ranking for all pitchers (with minimum 20 IPs) through June 26th this season, shown in the table below.
Mason Miller is still the most dominant single-inning pitcher in baseball, with an impeccable 1.13 xwFIP, more than a full run per game better than the second most effective pitcher in baseball. Jhoan Duran (2.19), Louis Varland (2.38), Adrian Morejon (2.44), and Jacob Misiorowski (2.47) round out the top five. Reigning NL Cy Young award winner, Paul Skenes, ranks 13th with a 2.94 xwFIP. The Padres, Phillies, Blue Jays, and Dodgers each have three of MLB’s elite 30 arms.
Now, let’s look at the starting pitcher ranking (with at least 20 IPs and minimum five starts).
Bryce Miller, Tyler Glasnow, and Dylan Cease join Misiorowski and Skenes as the top five starters in baseball. Cristopher Sanchez ranks 6th. Sanchez had a 50.2 inning scoreless streak earlier in the season, the longest since Orel Hershiser set the MLB record at 59 innings in 1988.
Trade Deadline Targets
Filtering for the pitchers on the teams that are likely to be trade deadline sellers, we get the following results:
The top two starters available at the deadline this year are Joe Ryan and Tarik Skubal. Chase Burns makes this list, but the Reds are unlikely to trade their young flamethrower when they have him under affordable team control until the 2032 season. Skubal, the two-time reigning AL Cy Young award winner, has by far the most upside and will cost a king’s ransom in prospects. If the Tigers fall further out of contention leading into the deadline, expect them to unload their soon-to-be-free-agent ace to a top contender like the Dodgers or the Yankees.
Juan Morillo headlines the available relievers. Morillo has a 98.6 mph average FB, a 34.4% whiff rate, and a 30.5% strikeout rate. Ty Madden and Drew Anderson join their teammate Skubal on the trading block, and Aroldis Chapman should be made available by the Red Sox.
